According to an analyst if you zoom out the chart of the bitcoin for a long time frame you can check that bitcoin is in the middle of a large bear cycle.
Bitcoin (BTC) lookslike it is ready to fall from the current price to below $30,000 in next few months, per a confluence of historically accurate technical indicators which brought forth by popular analyst named Ari Rudd.
The independent market analyst published a thread on Feb. 14(monday), explaining why is the Bitcoin ongoing price recovery — from below $33,000 on Jan. 24 to around $42,000 on Feb. 14 — might not have strong and confident base.
In doing so, Rudd presented three long-term technical setups with are extremely bearish outlooks and help us to understand why it is in such behavior.
They are listed as follows:
Bitcoin LFG model
Rudd’s Logarithmic Fractal Growth (LFG) is a Bitcoin price prediction model. uses Bitcoin’s mathematical policy that evaluate the future of the processby which the price valuation is done.
The analyst and their team applied the LFG model on a monthly based BTC/USD chart.
As shown in the chart below, the LFG levels had posed as accumulation/distribution zones for traders during the previous cycles of the bear run. So, Rudd noted that Bitcoin still has to fall to a prices which it never crosses in recent times, a so-called buy-area that had coincided with bottoms during the 2018 and 2020 price crashes.
“We are just a few months away from reaching the accumulation phase in which the prices will fall to lowest most rates,” Rudd stressed, adding that:
“Best possible scenario for buy opportunities will be 24K–27K levels.”
Like the LFG model, moving average ribbons have coincided accurately with the end of Bitcoin’s bearish cycles, including 2018 and 2020, on a quarterly timeframe.
In detail, these ribbons represent a range of moving averages (MAs) that enables traders to identify key resistance and support areas by looking at prices in relation to the MAs. Each of Bitcoin’s top-to-bottom trends earlier has exhausted near its so-called “ribbon support.”
With the cryptocurrency undergoing another price correction from its $69,000–top, the analyst suggests that its strong bounce from near $33,000 could turn out to be a bull trap because the price is “due to retest the Ribbon support on [the] quarterly chart.”
As a result, the moving averages ribbon indicator risks sending Bitcoin to $25,000 or below.
Weekly ribbon resistance, RSI
Another moving average ribbon indicator, but on weekly timeframes, has been instrumental in capping Bitcoin’s ongoing price rebound.
Related: ‘Up only’ for BTC fundamentals — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week
The “strong resistance,” as Rudd hinted, provided further bearish sentiment if coupled with Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI).
RSI gives traders cues about bullish and bearish price momentum. Rudd noted that the buying momentum weakened around a downward sloping RSI trendline, hinting at potential selloffs ahead for the BTC/USD pair.
A bullish takeaway, meanwhile
In contrast to the bearish technical indicators mentioned above, there are several Bitcoin on-chain indicators providing an interim bullish outlook.
As Cointelegraph covered earlier, Bitcoin addresses that hold at least 1,000 BTC have added more tokens to their balances during the recent upside retracement, signaling that the richest crypto investors have been backing the BTC’s rebound move.